Forecasting Isn’t a Luxury. It’s the Job.

“We were about to hire two people… until we saw the forecast.”

That one spreadsheet saved us tens of thousands of dollars and probably saved two team members from burnout.

The crazy part? Most agencies don’t even build one.

In agency life, everyone knows their utilization number.
“We were 78% last quarter!”
“We hit 84% last month!”

But here’s the problem: those numbers are always backward-looking.

They tell you what already happened, not what’s coming next.

So when do you realize you’re overloaded?
When the team is already drowning.
When do you realize you’re overstaffed?
After the lull hits and you’re scrambling for work.
When do you find out a key person is out during your busiest sprint?
Too late to do anything about it.

That’s not strategy. That’s survival.

The turning point came when we started looking forward.

We stopped relying on last month’s metrics and started building a true utilization forecast:

• Day-by-day availability (vacation, internal projects, PTO, training—all of it).

• Signed project hours (every single committed hour, by role or person).

• Pipeline projections (yes, even the renewals and soft leads).

And we didn’t just look at the quarter or the month.
we zoomed in. Weekly. Daily.

When we layered those numbers together—availability, signed work, pipeline, we finally had visibility.

And what we saw wasn’t always pretty.
Sometimes we were light. Sometimes we were slammed.
But at least we weren’t guessing anymore.

We could hire before the bottleneck.
We could move vacation before the conflict.
We could say “yes” or “not yet” to a client with confidence.

It wasn’t just a report. It became a leadership tool.

Here’s what most people get wrong:

• They confuse tracking with forecasting.

• They build dashboards but ignore the decisions.

• They trust gut feel more than math.

But forecasting utilization isn’t just for ops nerds.
It’s how real operators lead.

Here’s what you need to start:

1. Actual availability — subtract everything non-billable.

2. Signed work hours — real commitments, not vague estimates.

3. Pipeline data — even if it’s soft, track roles and hours.

Overlay those on a timeline. Visualize the gaps.
Use it to lead, not just report.

If you’re still managing utilization in the rearview mirror, you’re setting yourself up for pain.

Start small. Build a one-page forecast in Sheets.
Zoom in. Look ahead. Decide better.
This isn’t a luxury. This is the job.

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Richard